Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?
Dec. 5th workshop in Irvine focused on ability to predict winter precipitation
“Dry, hot and on fire” is how the California Department of Water Resources described Water Year 2018 in a recent report.
Water Year 2018 – from Oct. 1, 2017 to Sept. 30, 2018 - marked a return to dry conditions statewide following an exceptionally wet 2017, according to DWR’s Water Year 2018 report. But 2017 was exceptional as all but two of the water years in the past decade experienced drought.
Was Water Year 2018 simply a single dry year or does it signal the beginning of another drought? And what can reliably be said about the prospects for Water Year 2019? Does El Niño really mean anything for California or is it all washed up as a predictor?
Attendees found out at this one-day event Dec. 5 in Irvine, Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?
The event was ideal for anyone involved in managing water resources. It covered what is and isn’t known about forecasting California’s winter precipitation weeks to months ahead, the skill of present forecasts and ongoing research to develop predictive ability. Other topics included experimental forecasts of atmospheric rivers and winter blocking conditions.
Participants heard about the latest advancements in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting — weather predictions from two weeks to a season ahead — and how these predictions can improve management of water infrastructure including dams, flood storage and reservoirs. Preliminary research for the Colorado River Basin was also covered.
This special event was sponsored by the California Department of Water Resources and the Water Education Foundation in partnership with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and the Western Water Applications Office at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Location & Parking:
The workshop was held in the Huntington Room in the Auditorium at the Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences & Engineering, 100 Academy Way, Irvine, CA 92617.
Auditorium - Huntington Room
100 Academy Way
Irvine, California 92617
- Workshop Agenda
- Jeanine Jones - Expectations Presentation
- Duane Waliser - The Big Picture: National and International Research on Predicting Precipitation Weeks to Months Ahead
- Ben Hatchett - El Nino - Southern Oscillation all Washed up as a Predictor?
- Jonathan Rutz - Understanding the Skill of Present National Weather Services Outlooks
- Mike Anderson - DWR Investments in Improving Forecasts at all Timescales
- Ben Hatchett - Prelimiary Work on Precipitation in the Colorado River Basin
- Mike DeFlorio - Experimental Short-Term Forecasting of Atmospheric River Storms
- Peter Gibson - Experimental Forecasting of Winter Blocking/Ridging Conditions
- Mike Anderson - So What CAN We Say About Water Year 2019?