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Announcement October 31, 2018

Can El Niño Tell Us Anything About What’s Ahead for Water Year 2019?
Learn what is and isn't known about forecasting Water Year 2019 at Dec. 5 workshop in Irvine

Nimbus Dam winter releasesJust because El Niño may be lurking off in the tropical Pacific, does that really offer much of a clue about what kind of rainy season California can expect in Water Year 2019?

Will a river of storms pound the state, swelling streams and packing the mountains with deep layers of heavy snow much like the exceptionally wet 2017 Water Year (Oct. 1, 2016 to Sept. 30, 2017)? Or will this winter sputter along like last winter, leaving California with a second dry year and the possibility of another potential drought? What can reliably be said about the prospects for Water Year 2019?

At Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?, a one-day event on Dec. 5 in Irvine, water managers and anyone else interested in this topic will learn about what is and isn’t known about forecasting California’s winter precipitation weeks to months ahead, the skill of present forecasts and ongoing research to develop predictive ability.

Bringing together research meteorologists and climate scientists, the event also will feature current information about experimental forecasts of atmospheric rivers and winter blocking conditions as well as preliminary research for the Colorado River Basin, which has been suffering through nearly two decades of dry conditions.

Click here for more information and to register.

This special event is sponsored by the California Department of Water Resources and the Water Education Foundation in partnership with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

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Foundation Event December 5, 2018 - 8:30am - 2:30pm Learn What’s in Store for Water Year 2019 at Dec. 5 Workshop in Irvine Experts to Discuss El Nino, Atmospheric Rivers and Long-Range Weather Forecasting Dec. 5 in Irvine Can El Niño Tell Us Anything About What’s Ahead for Water Year 2019?

Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?
Dec. 5th workshop in Irvine focused on ability to predict winter precipitation

The Carr Fire devastated land around Keswick Dam, nine miles downstream of Shasta Dam on the Sacramento River“Dry, hot and on fire” is how the California Department of Water Resources described Water Year 2018 in a recent report.

Water Year 2018 – from Oct. 1, 2017 to Sept. 30, 2018 - marked a return to dry conditions statewide following an exceptionally wet 2017, according to DWR’s Water Year 2018 report. But 2017 was exceptional as all but two of the water years in the past decade experienced drought.

Was Water Year 2018 simply a single dry year or does it signal the beginning of another drought? And what can reliably be said about the prospects for Water Year 2019? Does El Niño really mean anything for California or is it all washed up as a predictor?

Attendees found out at this one-day event Dec. 5 in Irvine, Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?

Eventbrite - Water Year 2019: Feast or Famine?

Beckman Center
Auditorium - Huntington Room
100 Academy Way
Irvine, California 92617
View map
  • Workshop Agenda
  • Jeanine Jones - Expectations Presentation
  • Duane Waliser - The Big Picture: National and International Research on Predicting Precipitation Weeks to Months Ahead
  • Ben Hatchett - El Nino - Southern Oscillation all Washed up as a Predictor?
  • Jonathan Rutz - Understanding the Skill of Present National Weather Services Outlooks
  • Mike Anderson - DWR Investments in Improving Forecasts at all Timescales
  • Ben Hatchett - Prelimiary Work on Precipitation in the Colorado River Basin
  • Mike DeFlorio - Experimental Short-Term Forecasting of Atmospheric River Storms
  • Peter Gibson - Experimental Forecasting of Winter Blocking/Ridging Conditions
  • Mike Anderson - So What CAN We Say About Water Year 2019?
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Announcement October 31, 2018
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  • Topic: Climate Change
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