El Niño is coming. Of that, scientists seem sure as ocean temperatures continue to heat up. Warmer ocean water fills the atmosphere with moisture, which can ride the jet stream into California as massive storms. Or not. Weather is such a tricky beast. Regardless of whether this pattern becomes a “monster,” “Godzilla,” “Jurassic,” or just plain vanilla “super” El Niño, Fresno Engineer John Ennis has found an historic quirk thathe believes can result in a very specific outcome in the San Joaquin Valley. There is a nearly 100% correlation between a Relative Oceanic Niño Index of level 2 and flooding on the old Tulare Lake bed, according to a paper Ennis wrote.

Other weather and water forecast news around the West:

• Post Independent (Glenwood Springs, Colo.): El Nino brings a dose of ‘cautious optimism’ to Colorado rain, snow forecasts
• NBC12 (Phoenix): Monsoon activity heading into central Arizona
• San Francisco Chronicle: California thunderstorms: latest on flash flood risk in Tahoe, Mammoth
• Northern Arizona University: Blog: What’s the best way to measure fire risk? The answer might be underground.
• NOAA Research: Blog: Sudden danger: the science and stakes of flash flood forecasting