Predicting the weather is always tricky, with even the most solid forecasts sometimes not living up to the hype. But over the last few months, the world’s weather experts have become more united in the belief that we were going to be hit by a new El Niño climate pattern, and the consensus of computer models suggests it will probably be a very strong one. California is no stranger to the effects of El Niño, with the pattern associated with some of the state’s most memorable destructive winter seasons. … For Southern California, it would mean a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of flash floods and landslides. During three of the four “very strong” El Niños in the global record, downtown Los Angeles got significantly more rain than average. 

Other weather and water forecast news:

• Politico: This meteorologist is expecting an El Niño whiplash
• Active NorCal (Redding, Calif.): Scientists are watching for a mega El Nino that could reshape California’s winter
• San Francisco Chronicle: The Pacific near California has never been this warm in June
• The Sacramento Bee (Calif.): Increased fire risk expected in Northern California for next few months. See where
• The Weather Network: Climate change may boost California’s hurricane flood risk: study
• Weather West: Blog: Exceptionally broad and persistent west-central U.S. ridging to bring periods of elevated heat and monsoon moisture to Calif. and the SW, with record heat across Intermountain West
• California WaterBlog (UC Davis): Water extinguishes fire, but how does fire affect water? (Part 1 of 2)