Recent flood forecasts missed the mark in Sonoma County. Here’s why
The wavy, colored lines rose with each big storm and fell slightly with each break in the rain. Each time, the “forecast” and “guidance” lines in the river charts approached the somewhat arbitrary, broken red line describing Russian River’s 32-foot flood stage in Guerneville. During the seemingly endless parade of atmospheric rivers earlier this month, the colored, sinusoidal graphs — produced by the California Nevada River Forecast Center — became a go-to resource for predicting flooding along the river, advising first responders, business owners, residents and government officials. But each time, predictions were off, in some cases, by several feet. Sometimes, predictions changed dramatically throughout the same day.