Neutral ENSO conditions likely to last into winter
Neutral conditions dominating large parts of the eastern and central Pacific are likely to persist throughout the rest of the year and into the upcoming winter, according to a recent NOAA outlook. In the agency’s most recent update, researchers noted that much of the Pacific has anomalies between 0.5 °C to -0.5 °C, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in control. Once surface temperature anomalies reach at least -0.5 °C or colder, a La Niña is considered underway, which has global implications for weather patterns. The agency said that if the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, were to reach the cool phase later in the year, the changeover would likely not mean a whole lot of change, because the La Niña would be weak. … Last winter officially qualified as a La Niña event, although the signal was weak. Despite the cool signal, the season ended as the third-warmest winter on record, with an average temperature of 1.9 °F above the long-term average.
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