NOAA scientists predict a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter — but for Colorado, the drought relief may be limited. El Niño is a buildup of warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can bring wetter conditions to the Southwest and warmer weather to the North. Kris Karnauskas, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU Boulder, says Colorado sits in an area where El Niño’s impact is often less reliable. “So the southern part of Colorado does reach into the part of the US that typically gets a little bit more moisture to the southwest, and to the northwest, it could be a little bit warmer. The problem is the headwaters are not in the south, so the impact on Colorado’s water supply, for example, is not very robust,” Karnauskas said.

Other El Niño news:

• Deseret News (Salt Lake City): El Niño gets a hold of the Southwest, Mountain West
• Colorado Springs Gazette: ‘Super El Niño’ expected to boost Colorado moisture
• NPR: El Niño is here, so what does it mean?