El Niño is often portrayed as a predictable event that has the same effect whenever it appears. In reality, however, the effects of El Niño are not guaranteed. … Classic El Niño years have historically meant wetter winters for the Southwest and warmer, drier winters for the Pacific Northwest and northern continental US. However, judging from the occasional “drier than average” winters in the Southwest shown in Figure 5, El Niño is complex and its outcomes are not guaranteed. … During those periods of time when the MJO [Madden-Julian Oscillation] is in its “enhancing phase,” with respect to El Niño: we can expect more precipitation in the Southwest U.S. (in the Lower Colorado Basin, certainly, but … how far north into the Upper Basin this might extend is anyone’s guess).

Other water and weather forecast news:

• South Tahoe Now (South Lake Tahoe, Calif.): 2026 North American monsoon season and El Niño updates
• KCRW (Santa Barbara, Calif.): A ‘super’ El Niño could wreak havoc on Calif. marine ecosystem
• USA Today: Could we stop El Niño by brightening clouds? New study explores how
• Vox: A “Godzilla El Niño” next year could be a glimpse into the future