A historically strong El Niño is overwhelmingly predicted to bring a wet winter to California. But new data suggests the Sierra Nevada snow outlook is more complicated, and not a guaranteed bonanza. A Chronicle analysis of three major seasonal forecasting systems points to about 17% less snowfall than normal near Tahoe and Donner Summit in November and December, followed by roughly 28% more than normal from January through March. The potential late season boost is even more pronounced in the Central Sierra, near Yosemite, where forecast models suggest snowfall levels nearly 40% above normal from January to March. 

Other El Niño news:

• Arizona Republic (Phoenix): El Niño could influence Arizona’s winter
• ABC7 (San Francisco): El Niño effect: How climate pattern could reshape California’s winter
• Arizona’s Family (Phoenix): Early snow on the San Francisco Peaks brings hope for a strong winter
• USA Today: A dramatic El Niño effect is headed for the West Coast
• Outside Magazine (Boulder, Colo.): “The West looks like a better bet.” A forecaster on the coming Super El Niño.
• The Land Desk: Blog: The soaking of the Southwest continues, plus a lot more