Nearly every corner of California, from Eureka to San Diego, is forecast to see its heaviest rain in January during the historically strong upcoming El Niño winter, according to data released this week by a major seasonal model. The model came in wetter than when it was last run a month ago: San Francisco’s precipitation forecast for January grew from about 4 inches above normal to 5 inches, and Santa Rosa went from 6.3 inches above normal to 7 inches. But the peak month is only part of it. From December through March, the model’s average forecast runs at nearly double its normal rainfall in San Francisco and San Jose, and at more than two and a half times normal in San Diego. The update prompted a warning from UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, who wrote on X that he had “never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter” and that he is “officially concerned.”

Other El Niño news:

• The Press Democrat: Sonoma County joins local governments proclaiming local emergencies tied to El Niño
• City News Service: City Council confirms local emergency ahead of expected heavy El Niño weather​
• KTLA (Los Angeles): Climate expert issues most dire El Niño warning yet: ‘I am officially concerned’
• Agri-Pulse: As El Niño strengthens, California preps for flooding, groundwater recharge