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Aquafornia news October 16, 2026 SFGate

Warm, wet winter in store for California. Here’s what to know.

Winter is coming, and it looks warm and wet in California, according to new data. In a winter outlook published on Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provided national temperature and precipitation forecasts for December, January and February. The new outlook features how El Niño, the climate phenomenon that emerged in June and could reach historic strength this year, will influence winter weather. In California, meteorologists have expected El Niño to tip the odds in favor of a wetter season, especially in the southern part of the state. Sure enough, the outlook shows a 50% to 60% chance that there will be above-normal precipitation for much of California, from the Bay Area to the southern border. North of the Bay Area, that probability drops to 40% to 50%; and in the northern-most sliver of the state, it’s 33% to 40%. 

Other El Niño news:

  • CBS Colorado: Coloradans look to Super El Niño for major winter moisture
  • ABC30 (Fresno, Calif.): ‘I don’t think we’re completely ready’: Central California farmers prepare for El Niño winter
  • Santa Barbara Independent (Calif.): UC Santa Barbara faculty weigh in on 2026 Super El Niño
  • NOAA: Blog: El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook
  • Manteca Bulletin (Calif.): Opinion: El Nino could mean trouble for Ripon farmers & residents in parts of Manteca, Lathrop
  • San Francisco News: Opinion: Thanks to El Niño, California is getting a grim preview of its climate change future​
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Aquafornia news October 16, 2026 SFGate
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