La Niña shows signs of ending. Is El Niño next?
The long reign of La Niña may soon be over. According to the latest outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s an 82% chance that by springtime – sometime between March and May – La Niña will have faded away. In the spring, La Niña is most likely to be replaced by conditions meteorologists refer to as “ENSO neutral,” which is when neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. Looking further down the forecast into late summer and early fall and there are signs of something we haven’t seen in years: the return of El Niño. By the August through October timeframe, there’s about a 50% chance El Niño will take hold. Of course, that means there’s also about a 50% chance it won’t.