… The national El Niño pattern becomes less reliable around Northern California and Tahoe. The National Weather Service in Sacramento says precipitation correlates little with most El Niño and La Niña patterns in Northern California. Southern California tends to receive much more than average precipitation during El Niño. A National Weather Service graphic based on seven strong El Niño winters shows that three produced wet conditions in the Sierra Nevada, while two were dry and two were near normal. The analysis measures precipitation, which can fall as either rain or snow. … The UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab⁠, at 6,894 feet, found similarly mixed results when it examined snowfall during nine strong or very strong El Niño seasons. … The very strong El Niño seasons generally produced average to above-average snowfall, but the lab cautioned that the sample was small. It called the coming winter “still a toss-up.”

Other El Niño news:

• San José Spotlight (Calif.): San Jose leaders zero in on flood risks amid strong El Niño
• Los Angeles Times: The El Niño stars are aligning in record-breaking ways. Here’s how the high tides stack up
• American Rivers: Blog: As the Super El Niño looms, California needs more natural infrastructure to buffer water extremes
• UC Santa Barbara: Blog: Understanding the causes and impacts of 2026’s record-breaking El Niño
• Maven’s Notebook: Blog: Achieving groundwater sustainability while preparing for El Niño