Drought, Weather & Snowpack

The likelihood this winter of an El Niño — the weather pattern marked by warm Pacific Ocean waters that can affect California’s rainfall —  is increasing. But so far, this El Niño looks more like a lamb than a lion. The probability of El Niño conditions being present by December is now 70 to 75 percent, up from 50 percent five months ago, according to a new report Thursday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A state of emergency was declared  for the bayfront community of Belvedere after investigation of a damaged seawall revealed the problem is larger than the city had realized. Consulting engineers told the city late last month it should act immediately to prevent the seawall along Beach Road — which protects the area from flooding — from shifting any further or collapsing into San Francisco Bay.

After years of stop-and-go talks, California and two other states that take water from the lower Colorado River are nearing an agreement on how to share delivery cuts if a formal shortage is declared on the drought-plagued waterway. Under the proposed pact, California — the river’s largest user — would reduce diversions earlier in a shortage than it would if the lower-basin states strictly adhered to a water-rights pecking order.

Related Articles:

• Las Vegas Review-Journal: Colorado River states OK tentative plan to slow reservoirs’ decline
• The Colorado Sun: Plan to slow creeping Colorado River crisis could drain more water from Blue Mesa, Flaming Gorge reservoirs

Flash floods caused by torrential rains killed at least eight people on the Spanish island of Majorca and burst the banks of a river, washing away vehicles and engulfing a town in muddy water.

Seven Southwestern U.S. states that depend on the overtaxed Colorado River have reached landmark agreements on how to manage the waterway amid an unprecedented drought, including a commitment by California to bear part of the burden before it is legally required to do so, officials said Tuesday. The agreements are tentative and must be approved by multiple states and agencies as well as the U.S. government.

Related Article:

• Arizona Republic: Western states release proposed Colorado River agreements

In 2007, years into a record-breaking drought throughout the southwestern U.S., officials along the Colorado River finally came to an agreement on how they’d deal with future water shortages — and then quietly hoped that wet weather would return. But it didn’t.

Firefighters have mostly surrounded a smoky grass fire in Solano County but the blaze moved into marshland Monday, and officials said it could take a week to extinguish the flames. The Branscombe Fire, near Suisun City, has consumed about 4,700 acres and continues to burn on Grizzly Island, a state wildlife area that features natural tidal wetlands and artificially diked marshes.

Water saving in urban California continued to slide in August, but Butte County agencies generally conserved twice as much water as the rest of the state. The State Water Resources Control Board reported Tuesday that statewide, water use was down 12.6 percent in August, compared to August 2013.

The phrase “climate change” did not appear on the agenda of a recent three-day meeting of the Colorado Water Congress, but the topic was often front and center at the conference, as it increasingly is at water meetings around the state and the region. Amy Haas, the new executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, told the Water Congress audience of about 300 water managers, irrigators, engineers and lawyers that “hydrology is changing more rapidly than we once thought” and that “it is primarily due to climate change.”